Machine learning for uncertainty estimation in fusing precipitation observations from satellites and ground-based gauges

To form precipitation datasets that are accurate and, at the same time, have high spatial densities, data from satellites and gauges are often merged in the literature. However, uncertainty estimates for the data acquired in this manner are scarcely provided, although the importance of uncertainty quantification in predictive modelling is widely recognized. Furthermore, the benefits that machine learning can bring to the task of providing such estimates have not been broadly realized and properly explored through benchmark experiments. The present study aims at filling in this specific gap by conducting the first benchmark tests on the topic. On a large dataset that comprises 15-year-long monthly data spanning across the contiguous United States, we extensively compared six learners that are, by their construction, appropriate for predictive uncertainty quantification. These are the quantile regression (QR), quantile regression forests (QRF), generalized random forests (GRF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM) and quantile regression neural networks (QRNN). The comparison referred to the competence of the learners in issuing predictive quantiles at nine levels that facilitate a good approximation of the entire predictive probability distribution, and was primarily based on the quantile and continuous ranked probability skill scores. Three types of predictor variables (i.e., satellite precipitation variables, distances between a point of interest and satellite grid points, and elevation at a point of interest) were used in the comparison and were additionally compared with each other. This additional comparison was based on the explainable machine learning concept of feature importance. The results suggest that the order from the best to the worst of the learners for the task investigated is the following: LightGBM, QRF, GRF, GBM, QRNN and QR..

Ensemble learning for blending gridded satellite and gauge-measured precipitation data

Regression algorithms are regularly used for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products. In this context, ground-based measurements are the dependent variable and the satellite data are the predictor variables, together with topography factors. Alongside this, it is increasingly recognised in many fields that combinations of algorithms through ensemble learning can lead to substantial predictive performance improvements. Still, a sufficient number of ensemble learners for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products and their large-scale comparison are currently missing from the literature. In this work, we fill this specific gap by proposing 11 new ensemble learners in the field and by extensively comparing them for the entire contiguous United States and for a 15-year period. We use monthly data from the PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) gridded datasets. We also use gauge-measured precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly database, version 2 (GHCNm). The ensemble learners combine the predictions by six regression algorithms (base learners), namely the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multivariate adaptive polynomial splines (poly-MARS), random forests (RF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and each of them is based on a different combiner. The combiners include the equal-weight combiner, the median combiner, two best learners and seven variants of a sophisticated stacking method. The latter stacks a regression algorithm on the top of the base learners to combine their independent predictions...Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2301.0125

Diabetic foot ulcers monitoring by employing super resolution and noise reduction deep learning techniques

Diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) constitute a serious complication for people with diabetes. The care of DFU patients can be substantially improved through self-management, in order to achieve early-diagnosis, ulcer prevention, and complications management in existing ulcers. In this paper, we investigate two categories of image-to-image translation techniques (ItITT), which will support decision making and monitoring of diabetic foot ulcers: noise reduction and super-resolution. In the former case, we investigated the capabilities on noise removal, for convolutional neural network stacked-autoencoders (CNN-SAE). CNN-SAE was tested on RGB images, induced with Gaussian noise. The latter scenario involves the deployment of four deep learning super-resolution models. The performance of all models, for both scenarios, was evaluated in terms of execution time and perceived quality. Results indicate that applied techniques consist a viable and easy to implement alternative that should be used by any system designed for DFU monitoring

Tensor-based Nonlinear Classifier for High-Order Data Analysis

In this paper we propose a tensor-based nonlinear model for high-order data classification. The advantages of the proposed scheme are that (i) it significantly reduces the number of weight parameters, and hence of required training samples, and (ii) it retains the spatial structure of the input samples. The proposed model, called \textit{Rank}-1 FNN, is based on a modification of a feedforward neural network (FNN), such that its weights satisfy the {\it rank}-1 canonical decomposition. We also introduce a new learning algorithm to train the model, and we evaluate the \textit{Rank}-1 FNN on third-order hyperspectral data. Experimental results and comparisons indicate that the proposed model outperforms state of the art classification methods, including deep learning based ones, especially in cases with small numbers of available training samples.Comment: To appear in IEEE ICASSP 2018. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1709.0816

Automatic 3D modeling and reconstruction of cultural heritage sites from Twitter images

This paper presents an approach for leveraging the abundance of images posted on social media like Twitter for large scale 3D reconstruction of cultural heritage landmarks. Twitter allows users to post short messages, including photos, describing a plethora of activities or events, e.g., tweets are used by travelers on vacation, capturing images from various cultural heritage assets. As such, a great number of images are available online, able to drive a successful 3D reconstruction process. However, reconstruction of any asset, based on images mined from Twitter, presents several challenges. There are three main steps that have to be considered: (i) tweets’ content identification, (ii) image retrieval and filtering, and (iii) 3D reconstruction. The proposed approach first extracts key events from unstructured tweet messages and then identifies cultural activities and landmarks. The second stage is the application of a content-based filtering method so that only a small but representative portion of cultural images are selected to support fast 3D reconstruction. The proposed methods are experimentally evaluated using real-world data and comparisons verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.peer-reviewe